Long:

• Grains: Corn, Soybean Oil, Kansas City Wheat.

Short:

• Financials: 5-Year Notes, 30-Year US Treasuries.

Flat.

Long:

• Softs/Tropicals: Cotton.

Short:

• Indices: FTSE 100, CAC-40, AEX, IBEX-35.

Long:

• Metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum.
• Softs: London Sugar.
• Indices: FTSE 100.

Central Banks are desperately adding liquidity to the financial system to stop asset deflation. The real economic numbers are still staggering: real GDP is minus 3%, unadjusted M3 money supply growth is above 10% y/y, CPI-U is running at about 8% inflation per annum, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported unemployment is still accelerating to the upside.

This economic dilemma continues to produce a tremendous amount of volatility in both the stock and bond markets. Global bond prices are overextended, and an extremely high probability of a severe correction exists. Stocks have already tanked severely and might bottom in the short-term, but the reversal might be choppy because the economic fundamentals are still deteriorating in the US. Stock markets in some Asian countries might have a steadier short-term rally because the economic numbers are slightly better. The slowdown has hit commodities (the Goldman Sachs Commodity and CRB indices are down 50%+ from the high), but the rapidly expanding money supply will put a floor on prices.

Commodities will rise again, as the Federal Reserve has abandoned their inflation-fighting policies to fight the recession, and they will fix neither problem. The economic landscape of the United States has been permanently altered with corporate bailouts, the TARP, TAF, and TSLF facilities, and the massive expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. This structural change reduces the efficacy of future monetary policy interest rate changes, and they will have tremendous difficulty controlling inflation when it comes back.

Long:

• Metals: Platinum, Copper, Palladium.
• Softs: London Cocoa.

Long:

• Financials: Australian 10-Yr, 3-Yr and 90-Day Bills.

Short:

• Grains: MATIF Milling Wheat, Rough Rice
• Tropicals/Softs: London Cocoa, Lumber

Of course now Euro/Swiss is breaking down heavily after I covered.  Volatility is picking up everywhere.

Most major stock markets are down 3-5%+ overnight.

This is a very very dangerous time .. and potentially a great opportunity.  I stay very patient.